论文标题
瑞典未来的低碳电力系统的成本
The cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power for Sweden
论文作者
论文摘要
为了实现电力系统深度脱碳的目标，正在采用越来越多的可再生能源（VRE）。但是，研究人员在未来的电力系统中排除了核电，研究人员在没有大量成本的情况下是否可以实现目标。在瑞典，核电在2014年产生了年度电力供应的41％，官方目标是到2040年100％可再生电力生产。因此，我们研究了未来瑞典没有核电的未来低碳电力系统的成本。我们对欧洲电力系统进行建模，重点是瑞典，并在10 g/kWh的CO2发射约束下运行了能力投资和发电，传输，存储和需求响应的技术经济成本优化模型。我们的结果表明，一旦旧核电站退役，瑞典的核电站就没有或仅有较小的成本收益。这有针对技术成本以及以额外传输能力进行投资的可能性的大量假设。我们将结果与最近的研究对比，该研究声称因不允许在瑞典允许核能而造成严重的成本罚款，并讨论了方法论选择的含义。
To achieve the goal of deep decarbonization of the electricity system, more and more variable renewable energy (VRE) is being adopted. However, there is no consensus among researchers on whether the goal can be accomplished without large cost escalation if nuclear power is excluded in the future electricity system. In Sweden, where nuclear power generated 41% of the annual electricity supply in 2014, the official goal is 100% renewable electricity production by 2040. Therefore, we investigate the cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power for Sweden. We model the European electricity system with a focus on Sweden and run a techno-economic cost optimization model for capacity investment and dispatch of generation, transmission, storage and demand-response, under a CO2 emission constraint of 10 g/kWh. Our results show that there are no, or only minor, cost benefits to reinvest in nuclear power plants in Sweden once the old ones are decommissioned. This holds for a large range of assumptions on technology costs and possibilities for investment in additional transmission capacity. We contrast our results with the recent study that claims severe cost penalties for not allowing nuclear power in Sweden and discuss the implications of methodology choice.
