论文标题
在存在测量误差的情况下测试阈值调节,并应用于PPP假设
Testing for threshold regulation in presence of measurement error with an application to the PPP hypothesis
论文作者
论文摘要
调节是表征许多动态现象的重要特征,可以在阈值自回归环境中进行测试,其中零假设是一个全局的非平稳过程。但是,由于数据通常被测量错误损坏,因此该设置值得商bat。因此,将阈值自回归运动平均模型视为一般假设是更合适的。我们以订单第一的集成移动平均模型作为零假设实现了这个新设置。我们得出了一个Lagrange乘数测试,该测试具有渐近的无效分布,并提供了与测试阈值非线性有关差异平稳性的第一个严格证明,这是独立的。仿真研究表明,与现有测量误差相比,所提出的方法比现有测试更少偏见和更高的检测阈值调节功能。我们将新方法应用于欧元区国家的每日实际汇率。它通过越过位于极端上尾部的阈值时触发的非线性均值逆转机制来支持购买力平价假设。此外,我们分析了欧元区系列,并提出了阈值自回归运动平均规格,这为购买力平价辩论提供了新的启示。
Regulation is an important feature characterising many dynamical phenomena and can be tested within the threshold autoregressive setting, with the null hypothesis being a global non-stationary process. Nonetheless, this setting is debatable since data are often corrupted by measurement errors. Thus, it is more appropriate to consider a threshold autoregressive moving-average model as the general hypothesis. We implement this new setting with the integrated moving-average model of order one as the null hypothesis. We derive a Lagrange multiplier test which has an asymptotically similar null distribution and provide the first rigorous proof of tightness pertaining to testing for threshold nonlinearity against difference stationarity, which is of independent interest. Simulation studies show that the proposed approach enjoys less bias and higher power in detecting threshold regulation than existing tests when there are measurement errors. We apply the new approach to the daily real exchange rates of Eurozone countries. It lends support to the purchasing power parity hypothesis, via a nonlinear mean-reversion mechanism triggered upon crossing a threshold located in the extreme upper tail. Furthermore, we analyse the Eurozone series and propose a threshold autoregressive moving-average specification, which sheds new light on the purchasing power parity debate.