论文标题

石材曲线:ROC衍生的模型性能评估工具

The STONE curve: A ROC-derived model performance assessment tool

论文作者

Liemohn, Michael W., Azari, Abigail R., Ganushkina, Natalia, Rastaetter, Lutz

论文摘要

引入了一种新的模型验证和性能评估工具,即数字评估(Stone)曲线的观察阈值。它基于相对操作特征(ROC)曲线技术,但并没有对分类分类中的所有观测值进行分类,而是使用观测值的连续性质。与其在观测值中定义事件,然后仅在分类器(模型)数据集中滑动阈值,而是针对观测值和模型值同时更改阈值,数据和模型都具有相同的阈值。仅当观测值是连续的,并且模型输出与观测值相同的单位和比例,也就是说,该模型正在尝试精确地重现数据。石曲线与ROC曲线有几个相似之处,绘制了针对错误检测概率的检测概率,从低阈值的(1,1)角到高阈值的(0,0)角,高于零互感的单位斜线线表明比随机预测能力更好。主要区别在于,石曲线可以是非单调的,在X和Y方向上均加倍。这些涟漪揭示了数据模型值对中的不对称性。这种新技术应用于建模地球内磁层中常见地磁活性指数以及能量电子通量的输出。它不仅限于太空物理应用,而且可以用于使用数值模型来复制观测值的任何科学或工程领域。

A new model validation and performance assessment tool is introduced, the sliding threshold of observation for numeric evaluation (STONE) curve. It is based on the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve technique, but instead of sorting all observations in a categorical classification, the STONE tool uses the continuous nature of the observations. Rather than defining events in the observations and then sliding the threshold only in the classifier (model) data set, the threshold is changed simultaneously for both the observational and model values, with the same threshold value for both data and model. This is only possible if the observations are continuous and the model output is in the same units and scale as the observations, that is, the model is trying to exactly reproduce the data. The STONE curve has several similarities with the ROC curve, plotting probability of detection against probability of false detection, ranging from the (1,1) corner for low thresholds to the (0,0) corner for high thresholds, and values above the zero-intercept unity-slope line indicating better than random predictive ability. The main difference is that the STONE curve can be nonmonotonic, doubling back in both the x and y directions. These ripples reveal asymmetries in the data-model value pairs. This new technique is applied to modeling output of a common geomagnetic activity index as well as energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's inner magnetosphere. It is not limited to space physics applications but can be used for any scientific or engineering field where numerical models are used to reproduce observations.

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