论文标题
战略时空疫苗的分布增加了像Covid-19的传染病中的存活率
Strategic Spatiotemporal Vaccine Distribution Increases the Survival Rate in an Infectious Disease like Covid-19
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19造成了数十万人死亡，经济损失达到数万亿美元，这使人们渴望快速开发疫苗。一旦可用，就会逐渐生产疫苗，从而引起有关如何最好分配的问题。虽然官方疫苗接种指南主要集中在首先提供疫苗的问题（例如，风险群体），但在这里，我们提出了一种在时空分配的策略，该策略将其依次优先于局部感染增长率较高的区域。为了证明这一策略，我们开发了一个简单的统计模型，描述了感染模式的时间进化及其对疫苗接种的反应，例如COVID-19。对于不均匀的感染模式，本地混合良好的人群和基本繁殖数量$ r_0 \ sim 1.5-4 $与与人口密度相比分配疫苗的标准疫苗相比，我们模拟中提议的策略至少将死亡人数减半。对于$ r_0 \ sim 1 $，我们仍然发现生存率显着提高。拟议的疫苗分配策略可以在详细的建模工作中进行进一步测试，并可以激发有关疫苗在官方准则中时空分布的重要性的讨论。
Covid-19 has caused hundred of thousands of deaths and an economic damage amounting to trillions of dollars, creating a desire for the rapid development of vaccine. Once available, vaccine is gradually produced, evoking the question on how to distribute it best. While official vaccination guidelines largely focus on the question to whom vaccines should be provided first (e.g. to risk groups), here we propose a strategy for their distribution in time and space, which sequentially prioritizes regions with a high local infection growth rate. To demonstrate this strategy, we develop a simple statistical model describing the time-evolution of infection patterns and their response to vaccination, for infectious diseases like Covid-19. For inhomogeneous infection patterns, locally well-mixed populations and basic reproduction numbers $R_0\sim 1.5-4$ the proposed strategy at least halves the number of deaths in our simulations compared to the standard practice of distributing vaccines proportionally to the population density. For $R_0\sim 1$ we still find a significant increase of the survival rate. The proposed vaccine distribution strategy can be further tested in detailed modelling works and could excite discussions on the importance of the spatiotemporal distribution of vaccines for official guidelines.
