论文标题
实时监测流行病的演变的方法
Method to monitor the evolution of an epidemic in real time
论文作者
论文摘要
流行病的出现唤起了监测其传播的必要性，并评估和验证政府和行政机构实时制定的任何缓解措施。我们在这里提出了一种观察和量化这一传播以及受影响人群和理事机构的反应的方法，并将其应用于Covid-19，作为案例研究。该方法提供了同时追踪实时数量（例如死亡率和恢复率以及受感染者引起的新感染的数量）的手段。借助足够的数据，该方法可以对流行病进行彻底监测和评估，而无需对大流行的演变进行假设。
The emergence of an epidemic evokes the need to monitor its spread and assess and validate any mitigation measures enacted by governments and administrative bodies in real time. We present here a method to observe and quantify this spread and the response of affected populations and governing bodies and apply it to COVID-19 as a case study. This method provides means to simultaneously track in real time quantities such as the mortality and the recovery rates as well as the number of new infections caused by an infected person. With sufficient data, this method enables thorough monitoring and assessment of an epidemic without assumptions regarding the evolution of the pandemic in the future.
