论文标题
美国面临着特有的共同199感染和死亡；阻止大流行的方法
US faces endemic Covid-19 infections and deaths; ways to stop the pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19的新流行模型已为美国八个州构建和模拟。基于七个耦合微分方程的该模型的系数仔细评估了有关病例和死亡的记录数据。这些预测表明，Covid-19将成为地方性，蔓延了两年多。如果放松居住的订单，大多数州可能会在2021年遇到次要峰值。如果维持锁定，则大多数开放的州的共同死亡人数可能会大大降低。此外，我们的模型预测，将接触率降低10％，或者将测试降低约15％，或者将锁定的合规性增加一倍（从当前的$ \ sim $ 15％）将在一年内消除德克萨斯州的感染。基于当前情况的预测应用于整个美国，这表明到2020年11月1日之前，大约有1100万个感染（包括未发现），800万个累积确认病例和630,000例累积死亡。
A new epidemic model for Covid-19 has been constructed and simulated for eight US states. The coefficients for this model, based on seven coupled differential equations, are carefully evaluated against recorded data on cases and deaths. These projections reveal that Covid-19 will become endemic, spreading for more than two years. If stay-at-home orders are relaxed, most states may experience a secondary peak in 2021. The number of Covid-19 deaths could have been significantly lower in most states that opened up, if lockdowns had been maintained. Additionally, our model predicts that decreasing contact rate by 10%, or increasing testing by approximately 15%, or doubling lockdown compliance (from the current $\sim$ 15%) will eradicate infections in Texas within a year. Applied to the entire US, the predictions based on the current situation indicate about 11 million total infections (including undetected), 8 million cumulative confirmed cases, and 630,000 cumulative deaths by November 1, 2020.
