论文标题
Ockham的剃须刀适用于COVID-19型号拟合法国数据
The Ockham's razor applied to COVID-19 model fitting French data
论文作者
论文摘要
本文提出了一个基于数据的简单模型，用于拟合法国Covid-19的大流行进化的可用数据。有关法国大陆13个地区的时间序列已被考虑用于拟合和验证模型。一个极其简单的二维模型，只有两个参数证明能够重现有关Covid-19造成的每日死亡人数的时间序列，住院，重症监护和紧急访问，日常测试和其他指标的日常数量，用于不同的法国地区。这些结果可能有助于刺激有关更复杂模型复制和预测大流行进化的辩论，因为从机械的角度来看，它们可能导致非可识别性问题。
This paper presents a data-based simple model for fitting the available data of the Covid-19 pandemic evolution in France. The time series concerning the 13 regions of mainland France have been considered for fitting and validating the model. An extremely simple, two-dimensional model with only two parameters demonstrated to be able to reproduce the time series concerning the number of daily demises caused by Covid-19, the hospitalizations, intensive care and emergency accesses, the daily number of positive test and other indicators, for the different French regions. These results might contribute to stimulate a debate on the suitability of much more complex models for reproducing and forecasting the pandemic evolution since, although relevant from a mechanistic point of view, they could lead to nonidentifiability issues.
