论文标题
感染率变化的流行病的在线分析
Online analysis of epidemics with variable infection rate
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们继续开发新的流行病学模型命中，该模型适合分析和预测Covid-19-19流行病的传播。这是一个离散的时间模型，允许使用有关新病例数量的可用每日统计数据重建无症状病毒持有人的动态。我们建议使用新的指标，即总感染率，以区分流行病的传播和衰退模式。我们检查了11个不同国家和全世界的可用数据指标。我们的重建非常精确。在某些情况下，我们能够检测到灾难性的政治决定的确切日期，从而确保第二波流行病的浪潮。看来，除了我们所有示例中，根据当前新案件数量做出的决定是错误的。在本文中，我们建议一种合理的选择。我们的分析表明，除瑞典以外，所有经过测试的国家都处于危险区域。
In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model HIT, which is suitable for analyzing and predicting the propagation of COVID-19 epidemics. This is a discrete-time model allowing a reconstruction of the dynamics of asymptomatic virus holders using the available daily statistics on the number of new cases. We suggest to use a new indicator, the total infection rate, to distinguish the propagation and recession modes of the epidemic. We check our indicator on the available data for eleven different countries and for the whole world. Our reconstructions are very precise. In several cases, we are able to detect the exact dates of the disastrous political decisions, ensuring the second wave of the epidemics. It appears that for all our examples the decisions made on the basis of the current number of new cases are wrong. In this paper, we suggest a reasonable alternative. Our analysis shows that all tested countries are in a dangerous zone except Sweden.
