论文标题
大流行中的最佳控制
Optimal Control in Pandemics
论文作者
论文摘要
在大流行期间，由于公共卫生和经济成本而产生的需求矛盾。锁定是一种包含感染的常见方法，但它们会对经济产生不利影响。我们研究了如何在仍包含感染的同时最大程度地减少锁定的经济损害的问题。我们的分析基于SIR模型，我们使用病毒设定的时钟进行分析。这种“病毒时间”的使用允许对我们问题的清晰数学表述。我们优化了固定健康成本的经济成本，并制定了导航大流行的策略。这涉及以受控方式调整锁定水平，以最大程度地减少经济成本。
During a pandemic, there are conflicting demands arising from public health and economic cost. Lockdowns are a common way of containing infections, but they adversely affect the economy. We study the question of how to minimise the economic damage of a lockdown while still containing infections. Our analysis is based on the SIR model, which we analyse using a clock set by the virus. This use of the "virus time" permits a clean mathematical formulation of our problem. We optimise the economic cost for a fixed health cost and arrive at a strategy for navigating the pandemic. This involves adjusting the level of lockdowns in a controlled manner so as to minimise the economic cost.
