论文标题

空间+:一种新颖的空间混淆方法

Spatial+: a novel approach to spatial confounding

论文作者

Dupont, Emiko, Wood, Simon N., Augustin, Nicole

论文摘要

在空间回归模型中,协变量和空间效应之间的共线性可能会导致估计的显着偏见。这个问题称为空间混杂,正在遇到建模林业数据,以评估温度对树木健康的影响。可靠的推理很困难,因为结果取决于模型中是否包括空间效应。空间混淆背后的机制知之甚少,处理它的方法是有限的。我们提出了一种新颖的方法,即空间+,其中通过在空间依赖性后通过其残留物替换空间模型中的协变量来降低共线性。使用薄板样条模型公式,我们识别出空间混淆是赖斯(1986)鉴定的平滑诱导偏置,通过对效应估计值的渐近分析,我们表明空间+避免了空间模型的偏见问题。这也在仿真研究中也证明了这一点。空间+使用现有软件直接实现,并且由于响应变量与空间模型相同,因此可以将标准模型选择标准用于比较。该方法的一个主要优点也是它扩展到具有非高斯响应分布的模型。最后,尽管我们的结果是在薄板样条设置中得出的,但空间+方法学很容易转移到其他空间模型公式。

In spatial regression models, collinearity between covariates and spatial effects can lead to significant bias in effect estimates. This problem, known as spatial confounding, is encountered modelling forestry data to assess the effect of temperature on tree health. Reliable inference is difficult as results depend on whether or not spatial effects are included in the model. The mechanism behind spatial confounding is poorly understood and methods for dealing with it are limited. We propose a novel approach, spatial+, in which collinearity is reduced by replacing the covariates in the spatial model by their residuals after spatial dependence has been regressed away. Using a thin plate spline model formulation, we recognise spatial confounding as a smoothing-induced bias identified by Rice (1986), and through asymptotic analysis of the effect estimates, we show that spatial+ avoids the bias problems of the spatial model. This is also demonstrated in a simulation study. Spatial+ is straight-forward to implement using existing software and, as the response variable is the same as that of the spatial model, standard model selection criteria can be used for comparisons. A major advantage of the method is also that it extends to models with non-Gaussian response distributions. Finally, while our results are derived in a thin plate spline setting, the spatial+ methodology transfers easily to other spatial model formulations.

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