论文标题
图形深度因素以预测
Graph Deep Factors for Forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
最近已经提出了深层概率预测技术来建模大量的时间序列。但是,这些技术明确假设集合中时间序列之间的完全独立性(本地模型)或完全依赖性(全局模型)。这对应于两个极端情况,在这些情况下,每个时间序列都与集合中的其他所有时间序列断开,或者同样,每个时间序列都与导致完全连接的图形的所有其他时间序列相关。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个基于图形的深层概率预测框架,称为图形深度因子(GraphDF),它通过允许以任意方式将节点及其时间序列连接到其他两个极端。 GraphDF是一个混合预测框架,由关系全局和关系本地模型组成。特别是,我们提出了一个关系全局模型,该模型使用图的结构在全球范围内学习复杂的非线性时间序列模式,以提高预测精度和计算效率。同样,我们学习了一个关系本地模型,而不是独立建模,不仅考虑了其单个时间序列,而且还考虑了图中连接的节点的时间序列。该实验证明了与最先进的方法相比,就其预测准确性,运行时和可扩展性而言,基于最新方法的深度图预测模型的有效性。我们的案例研究表明,GraphDF可以成功生成云的使用预测,并将机会主义地安排工作负载,以将云群集利用率平均增加47.5%。
Deep probabilistic forecasting techniques have recently been proposed for modeling large collections of time-series. However, these techniques explicitly assume either complete independence (local model) or complete dependence (global model) between time-series in the collection. This corresponds to the two extreme cases where every time-series is disconnected from every other time-series in the collection or likewise, that every time-series is related to every other time-series resulting in a completely connected graph. In this work, we propose a deep hybrid probabilistic graph-based forecasting framework called Graph Deep Factors (GraphDF) that goes beyond these two extremes by allowing nodes and their time-series to be connected to others in an arbitrary fashion. GraphDF is a hybrid forecasting framework that consists of a relational global and relational local model. In particular, we propose a relational global model that learns complex non-linear time-series patterns globally using the structure of the graph to improve both forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency. Similarly, instead of modeling every time-series independently, we learn a relational local model that not only considers its individual time-series but also the time-series of nodes that are connected in the graph. The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed deep hybrid graph-based forecasting model compared to the state-of-the-art methods in terms of its forecasting accuracy, runtime, and scalability. Our case study reveals that GraphDF can successfully generate cloud usage forecasts and opportunistically schedule workloads to increase cloud cluster utilization by 47.5% on average.