论文标题
核对层次结构时间序列中的模型选择
Model selection in reconciling hierarchical time series
论文作者
论文摘要
已证明,模型选择是提高时间序列预测应用程序准确性的有效策略。但是,在处理层次时间序列时,除了选择最合适的预测模型外,预报者还必须选择一种合适的方法来调和为每个系列产生的基本预测,以确保它们相干。尽管某些层次预测方法(例如最低痕迹)在理论上和经验上都得到了核对基本预测的强烈支持,但在某些情况下,它们可能不会产生最准确的结果,而其他方法的表现都胜过其他方法。在本文中,我们提出了一种动态选择最合适的层次预测方法的方法,并结合了更好的预测准确性。该方法被称为条件层次结构预测,基于机器学习分类方法,并使用时间序列功能作为指标的领先指标,以执行每个层次结构的选择,以考虑各种替代方案。我们的结果表明,有条件的层次预测导致比标准方法更准确地预测,尤其是在较低的层次级别上。
Model selection has been proven an effective strategy for improving accuracy in time series forecasting applications. However, when dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from selecting the most appropriate forecasting model, forecasters have also to select a suitable method for reconciling the base forecasts produced for each series to make sure they are coherent. Although some hierarchical forecasting methods like minimum trace are strongly supported both theoretically and empirically for reconciling the base forecasts, there are still circumstances under which they might not produce the most accurate results, being outperformed by other methods. In this paper we propose an approach for dynamically selecting the most appropriate hierarchical forecasting method and succeeding better forecasting accuracy along with coherence. The approach, to be called conditional hierarchical forecasting, is based on Machine Learning classification methods and uses time series features as leading indicators for performing the selection for each hierarchy examined considering a variety of alternatives. Our results suggest that conditional hierarchical forecasting leads to significantly more accurate forecasts than standard approaches, especially at lower hierarchical levels.