论文标题
通过梯子操作员对流行病进行建模
Modeling epidemics through ladder operators
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种简单的模型，即在最初健康的人群中传播某些感染，这与文献中存在的其他模型不同。特别是，我们使用一种操作员技术，使我们能够自然地描述健康和不健康的人群之间可能的相互作用，以及它们转化为康复者和死者。经过相当普遍的讨论，我们将我们的方法应用于SARS-2003（严重急性呼吸综合症； SARS-COV-1）和Coronavirus covid-19（Corona病毒疾病； SARS-COV-2）的中国数据分析，并且在疾病的长期行为方面非常有效，尤其是在受影响的人数中，我们表明该模型非常有效。此外，我们展示了如何轻松地修改模型以考虑一些锁定度量，并推断出该过程大大降低了受感染个体的渐近价值，如预期的，并在现实生活中观察到。
We propose a simple model of spreading of some infection in an originally healthy population which is different from other models existing in the literature. In particular, we use an operator technique which allows us to describe in a natural way the possible interactions between healthy and un-healthy populations, and their transformation into recovered and to dead people. After a rather general discussion, we apply our method to the analysis of Chinese data for the SARS-2003 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome; SARS-CoV-1) and the Coronavirus COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease; SARS-CoV-2 ) and we show that the model works very well in reproducing the long-time behaviour of the disease, and in particular in finding the number of affected and dead people in the limit of large time. Moreover, we show how the model can be easily modified to consider some lockdown measure, and we deduce that this procedure drastically reduces the asymptotic value of infected individuals, as expected, and observed in real life.
