论文标题
包括气候系统的反馈在计算甲烷的社会成本中
Including climate system feedbacks in calculations of the social cost of methane
论文作者
论文摘要
综合评估模型（IAMS）是考虑社会经济系统与气候系统之间相互作用的有价值工具。决策者和政策分析师采用IAM来计算由于温室气体逐步排放而导致的气候损害的边缘化货币成本。在调节人为甲烷排放的背景下，该指标称为甲烷的社会成本（SC-CH $ _4 $）。由于用于社会成本估算的几个关键IAMS包含一个简化的模型结构，可防止非CO $ _2 $温室气体的内源建模，因此很少有SC-CH $ _4 $的估计值。因此，应更新IAM，以更好地表示与综合地球系统模型一致的甲烷循环动力学。我们包括甲烷周期中气候变化的反馈，以估计SC-CH $ _4 $。我们对SC-CH $ _4 $的预期价值是\ $ 1163/t-ch $ _4 $，在恒定3.0％的折现率下。相对于平均估计值，这表示没有甲烷周期的反馈，相对于平均估计值增加了44％。
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are valuable tools that consider the interactions between socioeconomic systems and the climate system. Decision-makers and policy analysts employ IAMs to calculate the marginalized monetary cost of climate damages resulting from an incremental emission of a greenhouse gas. Used within the context of regulating anthropogenic methane emissions, this metric is called the social cost of methane (SC-CH$_4$). Because several key IAMs used for social cost estimation contain a simplified model structure that prevents the endogenous modeling of non-CO$_2$ greenhouse gases, very few estimates of the SC-CH$_4$ exist. For this reason, IAMs should be updated to better represent methane cycle dynamics that are consistent with comprehensive Earth System Models. We include feedbacks of climate change on the methane cycle to estimate the SC-CH$_4$. Our expected value for the SC-CH$_4$ is \$1163/t-CH$_4$ under a constant 3.0% discount rate. This represents a 44% increase relative to a mean estimate without feedbacks on the methane cycle.
