论文标题
在没有获得免疫力的极端情况下，Covid-19 pandemy的SEIRS流行病学模型
SEIRS epidemiology model for the COVID-19 pandemy in the extreme case of no acquired immunity
论文作者
论文摘要
我们认为SEIRS隔室流行病学模型适用于在没有获得免疫力的极限情况下预测Covid-19的pandemy的演变。发现无病和地方性的固定点，并分析其稳定性。获得并讨论了基本繁殖比的表达，并强调了其对模型参数的依赖。发现阈值接触比确定了稳定的无病固定点存在的可能性。还与疾病早期扩散的早期分析溶液以及在快速测量后的衰变以及其衰减的近似分析溶液一起进行了数字溶液。我们分析了引入和放松隔离措施的几种可能方案。在固定识别和隔离率下的环状“隔离”和“隔离”策略无法降低第二波和连续波的降低，而如果还涉及识别和隔离比的灵活增加，则可以实现此目标。
We consider the SEIRS compartment epidemiology model suitable for predicting the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemy in the extreme limiting case of no acquired immunity. The disease-free and endemic fixed points are found and their stability is analysed. The expression for the basic reproduction ratio is obtained and discussed, emphasizing on its dependence on the model parameters. The threshold contact ratio is found which determines the possibility for a stable disease-free fixed point existence. Numeric solution for the pandemy evolution is also undertaken together with the approximate analytic solutions for the early stage of the disease spread as well as as for its decay after the rapid measures are undertaken. We analysed several possible scenarios for introducing and relaxing the quarantine measures. The cyclic "quarantine on" and "quarantine off" strategy at fixed identification and isolation ratios fail to reduce the lowering of the second and the consecutive waves, whereas this goal is possible to achieve if the flexible increase of the identification and isolation ratios is also involved.
