论文标题
温度和隔离对印度Covid-19的影响：一种数学建模方法
The Impact of Temperature and Isolation on COVID-19 in India: A Mathematical Modelling approach
论文作者
论文摘要
通过将恒定人口分为六个隔间，使用一组延迟微分方程捕获了印度Covid-19的动力学。计算平衡点并进行稳定性分析。灵敏度分析是对模型参数进行的。进行分叉分析并计算临界延迟。通过将扩散参数与温度的函数制定，研究了温度对种群的影响。我们得出的结论是，随着温度的降低，人群的平均感染增加。鉴于即将到来的印度冬季，新感染将有所增加。该模型与隔离延迟增加的特征相符，这会增加人群的平均感染。
The dynamics of COVID-19 in India are captured using a set of delay differential equations by dividing a constant population into six compartments. The equilibrium points are calculated and stability analysis is performed. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the parameters of the model. Bifurcation analysis is performed and the critical delay is calculated. By formulating the spread parameter as a function of temperature, the impact of temperature on the population is studied. We concluded that with the decrease in temperature, the average infections in the population increases. In view of the coming winter season in India, there will be an increase in new infections. This model falls in line with the characteristics that increase in isolation delay increases average infections in the population.
