论文标题
城市更多犯罪？关于犯罪法则和人均排名不足的规律 - 一项越野研究
More crime in cities? On the scaling laws of crime and the inadequacy of per capita rankings -- a cross-country study
论文作者
论文摘要
人均犯罪率几乎在任何地方都用于对城市进行排名和比较。但是，它们的用法依赖于强烈的线性假设，即犯罪与地区人数的速度相同。在本文中，我们证明，使用人均率来排名城市可以与根据人口规模调整的排名产生明显不同的排名。我们根据犯罪的类型来分析12个国家 /地区城市中城市中的人口犯罪关系，并评估人均测量结果对犯罪分析的影响。在大多数国家 /地区，我们发现盗窃随着人口规模的高度增加，而盗窃案线性增加。我们的结果表明，人均排名与人口调整后的排名可能有所不同，因此在此分析的数据中，它们在前十大最危险的城市中的大约一半不同意。因此，我们建议在使用人均犯罪率来对城市进行排名，并建议在此之前评估线性合理性。
Crime rates per capita are used virtually everywhere to rank and compare cities. However, their usage relies on a strong linear assumption that crime increases at the same pace as the number of people in a region. In this paper, we demonstrate that using per capita rates to rank cities can produce substantially different rankings from rankings adjusted for population size. We analyze the population-crime relationship in cities across 12 countries and assess the impact of per capita measurements on crime analyses, depending on the type of offense. In most countries, we find that theft increases superlinearly with population size, whereas burglary increases linearly. Our results reveal that per capita rankings can differ from population-adjusted rankings such that they disagree in approximately half of the top 10 most dangerous cities in the data analysed here. Hence, we advise caution when using crime rates per capita to rank cities and recommend evaluating the linear plausibility before doing so.
