论文标题
金融市场学习图的算法
Algorithms for Learning Graphs in Financial Markets
论文作者
论文摘要
在过去的二十年中,应用理论的应用领域从图理论中受益匪浅。结果,从资产网络估计到分层资产选择和投资组合分配等新颖方法现在是从业人员工具箱的一部分。在本文中,我们研究了从金融市场时代序列数据的角度来研究Laplacian结构性约束下学习无向图形模型的基本问题。特别是,我们提出了由经验证据支持的自然理由,用于使用拉普拉斯矩阵作为金融资产精确矩阵的模型,同时还建立了直接链接,以揭示laplacian限制因素如何与与市场索引因子以及条件较有意义的物理诠释相关的有意义的物理诠释。这些解释导致了一系列准则,从业人员在估计金融市场的图表时应意识到。此外,我们根据乘数的交替方向方法设计数值算法,以学习无方向性的加权图,这些图形考虑了对金融数据(例如重型尾巴和模块化)固有的风格化事实。我们说明了如何利用学到的图表到诸如股票时间序列聚类和外汇网络估算之类的实际情况。所提出的图形学习算法在一组实践中的最先进方法优于最先进的方法。此外,我们为提出的算法获得了理论和经验收敛结果。除了在金融市场中开发的图形学习方法之外,我们发布了一个称为Fingraph的R软件包,可容纳代码和数据以获得所有实验结果。
In the past two decades, the field of applied finance has tremendously benefited from graph theory. As a result, novel methods ranging from asset network estimation to hierarchical asset selection and portfolio allocation are now part of practitioners' toolboxes. In this paper, we investigate the fundamental problem of learning undirected graphical models under Laplacian structural constraints from the point of view of financial market times series data. In particular, we present natural justifications, supported by empirical evidence, for the usage of the Laplacian matrix as a model for the precision matrix of financial assets, while also establishing a direct link that reveals how Laplacian constraints are coupled to meaningful physical interpretations related to the market index factor and to conditional correlations between stocks. Those interpretations lead to a set of guidelines that practitioners should be aware of when estimating graphs in financial markets. In addition, we design numerical algorithms based on the alternating direction method of multipliers to learn undirected, weighted graphs that take into account stylized facts that are intrinsic to financial data such as heavy tails and modularity. We illustrate how to leverage the learned graphs into practical scenarios such as stock time series clustering and foreign exchange network estimation. The proposed graph learning algorithms outperform the state-of-the-art methods in an extensive set of practical experiments. Furthermore, we obtain theoretical and empirical convergence results for the proposed algorithms. Along with the developed methodologies for graph learning in financial markets, we release an R package, called fingraph, accommodating the code and data to obtain all the experimental results.