论文标题
当地对数出口的偏度
Skewness of local logarithmic exports
论文作者
论文摘要
国家和产品类别之间的贸易价值和关系的分布反映了各国如何选择其贸易伙伴和设计出口投资组合。在这里，我们考虑出口商网络和出口产品网络，其指示链接每年从1962年到2018年的相应出口价值的对数加权，并研究每个国家的即将到来链接的权重。这种局部对数出口分布分布在目的地和产物之间大约遵循跨出口商和时间的高斯分布，这意味着在对数尺度上随机分配了出口值。但是，确定了非零偏度，从积极变为负面，因为出口商在其投资组合中具有更多的合作伙伴进口商和更多的产品类别。在寻求起源时，我们分析了本地出口如何取决于出口商和目的地/产品的高度，并建立了它们的定量和可衡量的关系，并结合了随机性，从而揭示了各个国家出口策略的基本性质。
The distributions of trade values and relationships among countries and product categories reflect how countries select their trade partners and design export portfolios. Here we consider the exporter-importer network and the exporter-product network with directed links weighted by the logarithm of the corresponding export values each year from 1962 to 2018, and study how the weights of the outgoing links from each country are distributed. Such local logarithmic export distributions by destinations and products are found to follow approximately the Gaussian distribution across exporters and time, implying random assignment of export values on logarithmic scale. However, a non-zero skewness is identified, changing from positive to negative as exporters have more partner importers and more product categories in their portfolios. Seeking the origin, we analyze how local exports depend on the out-degree of exporter and the in-degrees of destinations/products and formulate their quantitative and measurable relation incorporating randomness, which uncovers the fundamental nature of the export strategies of individual countries.
