论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Remember to correct the bias when using deep learning for regression!
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
When training deep learning models for least-squares regression, we cannot expect that the training error residuals of the final model, selected after a fixed training time or based on performance on a hold-out data set, sum to zero. This can introduce a systematic error that accumulates if we are interested in the total aggregated performance over many data points. We suggest to adjust the bias of the machine learning model after training as a default postprocessing step, which efficiently solves the problem. The severeness of the error accumulation and the effectiveness of the bias correction is demonstrated in exemplary experiments.
