论文标题

技术的三个法则上升或下降

Three Laws of Technology Rise or Fall

论文作者

Zhan, Jianfeng

论文摘要

牛顿的运动定律完美地解释了我们日常生活中的身体现象。是否有任何法律解释或近似技术的上升或下降?在回顾了成功的13个信息技术之后,本文得出了三个技术定律,并衍生了五个推论,以解释或近似技术的兴起或下降。三个法律是技术惯性,技术变革力以及技术行动和反应的法律。五个推论是技术变革力量,技术突破,技术垄断,技术开放性和技术商机的推论。我介绍了如何使用法律和推论来分析新兴技术 - 开源RISC-V处理器。另外,我详细阐述了基准在应用这些法律中的作用。

Newton's laws of motion perfectly explain or approximate physical phenomena in our everyday life. Are there any laws that explain or approximate technology's rise or fall? After reviewing thirteen information technologies that succeeded, this article concludes three laws of technology and derives five corollaries to explain or approximate the rise or fall of technology. Three laws are the laws of technology inertia, technology change force, and technology action and reaction. Five corollaries are the corollaries of measurement of technology change force, technology breakthrough, technology monopoly, technology openness, and technology business opportunity. I present how to use the laws and the corollaries to analyze an emerging technology -- the open-source RISC-V processor. Also, I elaborate on benchmarks' role in applying those laws.

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