论文标题
表演性二进制预测的评分规则
Scoring Rules for Performative Binary Prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
我们构建了一个专家预测模型，预测可以影响世界的状态。在此模型下，我们通过理论和数值结果表明，适当的评分规则可以激励专家通过他们的预测来操纵世界。我们还构建了一个简单的评分规则，可以避免此问题。
We construct a model of expert prediction where predictions can influence the state of the world. Under this model, we show through theoretical and numerical results that proper scoring rules can incentivize experts to manipulate the world with their predictions. We also construct a simple class of scoring rules that avoids this problem.
