论文标题
在极端海平面估计中考虑气候变化
Accounting for Climate Change in Extreme Sea Level Estimation
论文作者
论文摘要
极端海平面的估计是减轻沿海洪水的基础，因为它们为国防工程提供了见识。随着全球气候的变化，海平面的上升加上风暴强度和频率的增加，对海岸线社区的风险增加。我们提出了一种估算极端海平面的新方法，该方法解释了气候变化对不受平均海平面趋势的极端事件的影响。我们遵循一种联合概率方法论，将偏斜的潮汐和峰值潮汐视为海平面的唯一组成部分。我们使用非平稳的广义帕累托分布（GPD）对极端偏斜的潮流进行了建模，该协变量占气候变化，季节性和偏压潮汐潮汐相互作用。我们开发了有效测试不同海岸线和季节中极端偏差趋势的方法。我们使用来自四个英国潮汐仪的数据来说明我们的方法。
Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency pose an increasing risk to coastline communities. We present a new method for estimating extreme sea levels that accounts for the effects of climate change on extreme events that are not accounted for by mean sea level trends. We follow a joint probabilities methodology, considering skew surge and peak tides as the only components of sea levels. We model extreme skew surges using a non-stationary generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) with covariates accounting for climate change, seasonality and skew surge-peak tide interaction. We develop methods to efficiently test for extreme skew surge trends across different coastlines and seasons. We illustrate our methods using data from four UK tide gauges.
