论文标题
ROC分析的转换模型
Transformation models for ROC analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
接收器操作特征(ROC)分析是评估和比较医学诊断测试准确性的最流行方法之一。尽管已经开发了各种方法来估计ROC曲线及其相关的摘要指标,但在单个框架上尚无共识,可以提供一致的统计推断,同时处理与医疗数据相关的复杂性。这种复杂性可能包括影响测试,序数测试数据,仪器检测限制或相关生物标志物引起的诊断潜力的协变量。我们为转化的测试结果提出了一个回归模型,该模型利用了ROC曲线的不变性来单调转换并自然适应这些特征。我们使用最大似然推理保证了所得估计器和相关置信区间的渐近效率。仿真研究表明,基于转化模型的估计值是公正的,并且在名义水平上的产量覆盖率。该方法应用于代谢综合征的横断面研究,我们研究了重量与高度比例作为非侵入性诊断测试的协变量性能。本文中描述的所有方法的软件实现均在“ TRAM” R软件包中提供。
Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is one of the most popular approaches for evaluating and comparing the accuracy of medical diagnostic tests. Although various methodologies have been developed for estimating ROC curves and its associated summary indices, there is no consensus on a single framework that can provide consistent statistical inference whilst handling the complexities associated with medical data. Such complexities might include covariates that influence the diagnostic potential of a test, ordinal test data, censored data due to instrument detection limits or correlated biomarkers. We propose a regression model for the transformed test results which exploits the invariance of ROC curves to monotonic transformations and naturally accommodates these features. Our use of maximum likelihood inference guarantees asymptotic efficiency of the resulting estimators and associated confidence intervals. Simulation studies show that the estimates based on transformation models are unbiased and yield coverage at nominal levels. The methodology is applied to a cross-sectional study of metabolic syndrome where we investigate the covariate-specific performance of weight-to-height ratio as a non-invasive diagnostic test. Software implementations for all the methods described in the article are provided in the "tram" R package.