论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Impact of the finite life-time of UHECR sources

论文作者

Eichmann, Björn, Kachelrieß, Michael

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

The observational data on ultrahigh energy cosmic rays (UHECR), in particular their mass composition, show strong indications for extremely hard spectra of individual mass groups of CR nuclei at Earth. In this work, we show that such hard spectra can be the result of the finite life-time of UHECR sources, if a few individual sources dominate the UHECR flux at the highest energies. In this case, time delays induced by deflections in the turbulent extragalactic magnetic field as well as from the diffusive or advective escape from the source environment can suppress low-energy CRs, leading to a steepening of the observed spectrum. Considering radio galaxies as the main source of UHECRs, we discuss the necessary conditions that few individual sources dominate over the total contribution from the bulk of sources that have been active in the past. We provide two proof-of-principle scenarios showing that for a turbulent extragalactic magnetic field with a strength $B$ and a coherence length $l_{\rm coh}$, the life-time of a source at a distance $d_{\rm src}$ should satisfy ${t_{\rm act} \sim \left( B/1\,\text{nG} \right)^2\,\left( d_{\rm src}/10\,\text{Mpc} \right)^2\,\left( l_{\rm coh}/1\,\text{Mpc} \right)\,\text{Myr}}$ to obtain the necessary hardening of the CR spectrum at Earth.

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