论文标题
地震发生的柔性时空鹰队工艺模型
Flexible Spatio-Temporal Hawkes Process Models for Earthquake Occurrences
论文作者
论文摘要
霍克斯过程是研究地震发生的自我引起性质的最常用模型之一。然而，由于异质地质和压力，地震性模式具有复杂的特征，而霍克斯工艺的现有方法无法完全捕获。这项研究介绍了新型的非参数霍克斯工艺模型，这些过程以三种不同的方式灵活。首先，我们结合了自刺激地震生产力的空间不均匀性。其次，我们考虑余震发生的各向异性。第三，我们反映了与不可分割的时空触发结构之间余震之间的时空相互作用。为了进行模型估计，我们扩展了独立于模型的随机解释（MISD）算法，并建议用内核方法代替其基于直方图的估计器。我们通过将其应用于具有主动地震活动的地区的地震性数据来证明拟议方法的实用性。
Hawkes process is one of the most commonly used models for investigating the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. However, seismicity patterns have complicated characteristics due to heterogeneous geology and stresses, for which existing methods with Hawkes process cannot fully capture. This study introduces novel nonparametric Hawkes process models that are flexible in three distinct ways. First, we incorporate the spatial inhomogeneity of the self-excitation earthquake productivity. Second, we consider the anisotropy in aftershock occurrences. Third, we reflect the space-time interactions between aftershocks with a non-separable spatio-temporal triggering structure. For model estimation, we extend the model-independent stochastic declustering (MISD) algorithm and suggest substituting its histogram-based estimators with kernel methods. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed methods by applying them to the seismicity data in regions with active seismic activities.
