论文标题

哪些因素最重要?启动估值可以微目标吗?

Which Factors Matter Most? Can Startup Valuation be Micro-Targeted?

论文作者

Berre, Max

论文摘要

尽管创业估值受收入,风险,年龄和宏观经济状况的影响,但特定的因果关系传统上是黑匣子。由于未披露估值,因此通常只能猜测其他因素(行业,地理和知识产权)的角色(行业,地理和知识产权)。 VC评估研究表明,建立因素层次结构以更好地了解启动估值及其动态的重要性,这表明为此目的雇用数据科学家的智慧。可以通过基于决策树和随机森林的层次预测模型来建立定制理解。这些具有理解哪些因素最重要的优势。结合OLS,还告诉我们何时适用特定因果关系的情况。这项研究探讨了分类变量对初创企业评估的确定性作用(即,联合组合地理,城市和部门的派别派别变量),以便能够构建广义的估值记分计量方法。本研究使用包含1,044个独特的欧盟和EEA的1,091个风险投资的数据集,研究了微观经济,部门和本地级别对启动估值的影响。原则上,该研究依赖于固定效应和联合固定效应的回归,以及通过非参数方法结合计量经济学和机械学习技术的非参数方法来分析和探索微量和断层线的分析和探索。

While startup valuations are influenced by revenues, risks, age, and macroeconomic conditions, specific causality is traditionally a black box. Because valuations are not disclosed, roles played by other factors (industry, geography, and intellectual property) can often only be guessed at. VC valuation research indicates the importance of establishing a factor-hierarchy to better understand startup valuations and their dynamics, suggesting the wisdom of hiring data-scientists for this purpose. Bespoke understanding can be established via construction of hierarchical prediction models based on decision trees and random forests. These have the advantage of understanding which factors matter most. In combination with OLS, the also tell us the circumstances of when specific causalities apply. This study explores the deterministic role of categorical variables on the valuation of start-ups (i.e. the joint-combination geographic, urban, and sectoral denomination-variables), in order to be able to build a generalized valuation scorecard approach. Using a dataset of 1,091 venture-capital investments, containing 1,044 unique EU and EEA, this study examines microeconomic, sectoral, and local-level impacts on startup valuation. In principle, the study relies on Fixedeffects and Joint-fixed-effects regressions as well as the analysis and exploration of divergent micropopulations and fault-lines by means of non-parametric approaches combining econometric and machinelearning techniques.

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