论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
An organ deformation model using Bayesian inference to combine population and patient-specific data
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Objective: Organ deformation models have the potential to improve delivery and reduce toxicity of radiotherapy, but existing data-driven motion models are based on either patient-specific or population data. We propose to combine population and patient-specific data using a Bayesian framework. Our goal is to accurately predict individual motion patterns while using fewer scans than previous models. Approach: We have derived and evaluated two Bayesian deformation models. The models were applied retrospectively to the rectal wall from a cohort of prostate cancer patients. These patients had repeat CT scans evenly acquired throughout radiotherapy. Each model was used to create coverage probability matrices (CPMs). The spatial correlations between these CPMs and ``true'' CPMs, derived from independent scans of the same patient, were calculated. Main results: Spatial correlation with ground truth were significantly higher for the Bayesian deformation models than both patient-specific and population-derived models with 1, 2 or 3 patient-specific scans as input. Statistical motion simulations indicate that this result will also hold for more than 3 scans. Significance: The improvement over known models means that fewer scans per patient are needed to achieve accurate deformation predictions. The models have applications in robust radiotherapy planning and evaluation, among others.