论文标题
股票市场的情报和全球偏见
Intelligence and Global Bias in the Stock Market
论文作者
论文摘要
贸易是人类智能的基本特征之一。证券市场是其最终表达。股票的基本指标包括信息以及噪声和偏见对股票价格的影响；但是，确定噪声和偏见的影响通常很困难。在本文中，我通过理性期望介绍了真实的基础假设，并通过使用基于真实基础假设的对数正态分布模型来检测实际基本指标的全球偏差组件。分析结果表明，偏见通常表现出相同的特征，强烈支持真实的基本面假设。值得注意的是，投资活动比率的正价流动是真正的基本面。这些偏见从何而来？答案非常简单：``现金是事实，利润是一种意见。''，即，管理和会计意见添加到了真正的基本面中。结果，要实现凯斯滕过程，将获得帕累托分布。这意味着市场知道它并表示股票市场上的稳定全球偏见。
Trade is one of the essential feature of human intelligence. The securities market is the ultimate expression of it. The fundamental indicators of stocks include information as well as the effects of noise and bias on the stock prices; however, identifying the effects of noise and bias is generally difficult. In this article, I present the true fundamentals hypothesis based on rational expectations and detect the global bias components from the actual fundamental indicators by using a log-normal distribution model based on the true fundamentals hypothesis. The analysis results show that biases generally exhibit the same characteristics, strongly supporting the true fundamentals hypothesis. Notably, the positive price-to-cash flows from the investing activities ratio is a proxy for the true fundamentals. Where do these biases come from? The answer is extremely simple: ``Cash is a fact, profit is an opinion.'' Namely, opinions of management and accounting are added to true fundamentals. As a result, Kesten process is realized and the Pareto distribution is to be obtained. This means that the market knows it and represents as a stable global bias in the stock market.
