论文标题
除了费舍尔对宇宙学的预测
Beyond Fisher Forecasting for Cosmology
论文作者
论文摘要
未来实验的计划和设计在很大程度上取决于预测,以评估假设一组测量值提供的潜在科学价值。 Fisher Information Matrix由于其方便的属性和低计算成本,提供了一种特别有用的预测工具。但是,当数据几乎是高斯分布式时,Fisher矩阵仅提供了与真实可能性合理的近似,并且可观察物几乎具有线性依赖感兴趣的参数。同样,仅Fisher预测技术不能用于评估其自身的有效性。对确切或模拟可能性的彻底取样可以确定确定Fisher的预测是否有效,尽管这种采样通常非常昂贵。我们提出了一个基于可能性(DALI)技术的衍生近似值的简单测试,以确定Fisher矩阵是否提供了与确切可能性的良好近似值。我们表明,在区域中,Fisher矩阵与真实可能性的近似值很差,在该区域中,达利近似的水平表面二维切片与可能性的可能性与渔民近似的二维水平表面切片不同。我们证明我们的方法准确地预测了渔民近似与各种宇宙学模型和多种数据组合的真实可能性偏离的情况,与标准Fisher预测相比,计算成本仅适量增加。
The planning and design of future experiments rely heavily on forecasting to assess the potential scientific value provided by a hypothetical set of measurements. The Fisher information matrix, due to its convenient properties and low computational cost, provides an especially useful forecasting tool. However, the Fisher matrix only provides a reasonable approximation to the true likelihood when data are nearly Gaussian distributed and observables have nearly linear dependence on the parameters of interest. Also, Fisher forecasting techniques alone cannot be used to assess their own validity. Thorough sampling of the exact or mock likelihood can definitively determine whether a Fisher forecast is valid, though such sampling is often prohibitively expensive. We propose a simple test, based on the Derivative Approximation for LIkelihoods (DALI) technique, to determine whether the Fisher matrix provides a good approximation to the exact likelihood. We show that the Fisher matrix becomes a poor approximation to the true likelihood in regions where two-dimensional slices of level surfaces of the DALI approximation to the likelihood differ from two-dimensional slices of level surfaces of the Fisher approximation to the likelihood. We demonstrate that our method accurately predicts situations in which the Fisher approximation deviates from the true likelihood for various cosmological models and several data combinations, with only a modest increase in computational cost compared to standard Fisher forecasts.