论文标题
使用数据驱动的优化方法在体育资金中基于证据的决策
Evidence-based policy-making in sports funding using a data-driven optimization approach
论文作者
论文摘要
许多欧洲国家面临儿童肥胖率的上升,这在199日大流行期间的体育活动机会下降而加剧了。进入体育设施取决于多种因素,例如地理位置,靠近人口中心,预算限制和其他社会经济协变量。在这里,我们展示了如何在数据驱动的模拟模型中实现政府资金对体育促进者(例如体育俱乐部)的最佳分配,从而最大程度地利用儿童进入体育设施。我们为奥地利的所有1,854个足球俱乐部编辑了一个数据集,其中包括其预算,地理位置,计数以及其成员年龄识别的估计。我们发现活跃的俱乐部成员人数与预算之间存在特征性的子线性关系,这取决于俱乐部市政当局的社会经济条件。在模型中,我们认为这种关系是因果关系,我们评估了不同的资金策略。我们表明,根据区域社会经济特征和俱乐部预算,将资金分配的优化策略优于一种天真的方法,最高可吸引儿童参加体育俱乐部,获得500万欧元的额外资金。我们的结果表明,通过以循证和个性化的方式将公共资助策略的影响可以大大增加为区域社会经济特征。
Many European countries face rising obesity rates among children, compounded by decreased opportunities for sports activities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Access to sports facilities depends on multiple factors, such as geographic location, proximity to population centers, budgetary constraints, and other socio-economic covariates. Here we show how an optimal allocation of government funds towards sports facilitators (e.g. sports clubs) can be achieved in a data-driven simulation model that maximizes children's access to sports facilities. We compile a dataset for all 1,854 football clubs in Austria, including estimates for their budget, geolocation, tally, and the age profile of their members. We find a characteristic sub-linear relationship between the number of active club members and the budget, which depends on the socio-economic conditions of the clubs' municipality. In the model, where we assume this relationship to be causal, we evaluate different funding strategies. We show that an optimization strategy where funds are distributed based on regional socio-economic characteristics and club budgets outperforms a naive approach by up to 117\% in attracting children to sports clubs for 5 million Euros of additional funding. Our results suggest that the impact of public funding strategies can be substantially increased by tailoring them to regional socio-economic characteristics in an evidence-based and individualized way.